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Flannel feels fantastic with our fall 2023 weather forecast for Portland

Prepare for autumn — and jumping into massive piles of leaves — with these seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.

The sun shines through the orange leaves of a maple tree at the Portland Japanese Garden during fall.

We’re counting down the days to fall foliage.

We know the question on your mind, Portlanders — when’s it going to cool off, and when will the trees change color?

Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for September, October, and November.

While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what fall will bring.

Reminder: The first day of fall is on Saturday, Sept. 23.

A map shows the US temperature outlook for fall 2023.

The seasonal temperature outlook for this fall.

Photo by NOAA


Think warmer. This fall, Portland has a 33-40% chance of temperatures being higher than normal. Does flannel work with flip flops? We’re asking for a friend...


Expect less precipitation. Portland has a 40-50% chance of seeing below-normal snow and rainfall amounts this fall. You can probably keep those umbrellas in the closet.


Drought conditions are expected to persist this season. You can thank El Niño for that.

A cyclist pedals up a steep and curving paved road in the middle of a Portland forest where the fall leaves are changing orange.

Catch us pedaling through a fantasy forest all fall long.


Typically in Portland, September’s temperatures fluctuate between an average low of 53° and an average high of 76°, but you can usually count on a day or two to reach 90°. Expect cool but frost-free mornings, perfect for early, weekend hikes in Hoyt Arboretum. From the month’s start to finish, we’ll lose 1.5 hours of daylight.


Trips to the PSU Farmers Market are usually framed by golden leaves in October when the average daily temperatures continue to trend lower toward the 46°-64° range. Rainfall chances continue to climb, but expect this year to be on the lower end of the typical spectrum of 2.6 to 5 inches.


Historically, average highs in November drop ~12° to 52°, with an average low of 41°. About once every 10 years, the thermometer stays below freezing the entire day — let’s hope that’s not the case. Regardless, you’ll definitely want to bundle up if you enter a turkey trot.

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